Stats rely on a weight of evidence. To be more precise, analysts need a large data sample to generate a meaningful measure and draw a conclusion.
In fact, some analysis gets ignored because, ‘the sample was too small.’
For me, it’s fine to pay attention to a broad-brush evaluation of a market, but when it comes down to operating as a specialist buyers’ agent, these figures do little to help my client, because the true value of a home relies on more nuanced details than just a suburb’s median price.
I’ve yet to be involved in the final stages of negotiating a purchase and then had a convincing argument thrown up by the seller around stats.
Me: “We are prepared to go to $692,000 and no more”
Agent: “But recent data reveals there’s been a six per cent rise in the median price for housing in this location and given they bought two years ago for $650,000, you’ll have to pay more,”
Me: “Oh… OK… where do I sign?”
This just does not happen because, by this point, I care as much about the metrics as I do about the plight of being a Kardashian.
Individual property selection is a nuanced art relying on a myriad of factors. I want to compare like-with-like properties and the relative gain in a suburb’s median price has zero impact on my buy/don’t buy decision.