🎧 EP 282 - What the 2026 Budget Means for First Home Buyers
You've probably seen the headlines—negative gearing changes, investor crackdowns, and talk that housing might finally become more affordable. But if you're a first home buyer trying to make sense of it all, it's worth asking: are these changes really going to help you... or is the reality more complex?
In this episode, Veronica and Meighan unpack what the 2026 budget actually includes and what it means for first home buyers navigating the current property market. They break down the gap between headlines and reality, explaining why these policy changes may not lead to the price drops many buyers are hoping for—and how misunderstanding that could affect your next move.
Here's what we cover and why it matters:
🏡 What negative gearing changes really mean for buyers
At first glance, the negative gearing changes can sound like a step in the right direction. Many assume that reducing tax benefits for property investors will ease competition and improve access for buyers entering the market. But the reality is more nuanced.
While some investor activity may reduce in established properties, incentives still exist in other areas—particularly in new builds. This doesn't remove investors from the market; it simply shifts where they focus. Understanding negative gearing explained in this context is key, especially when paired with broader tax settings like capital gains tax, which also influence investor behaviour.
Rather than solving affordability challenges outright, these changes may reshape competition in ways that first home buyers don't immediately see.
📉 Will property prices fall after budget changes?
One of the biggest questions buyers are asking is: will property prices fall after the budget changes?
It's a fair question—but the answer isn't straightforward. While policy shifts may slightly reduce investor demand, property prices in Australia are driven by a much wider set of factors. Housing supply, population growth, borrowing capacity, and economic conditions all play a role.
This is where the idea of an investor vs supply imbalance becomes important. Even if some investors step back, limited housing supply can continue to support prices. In many areas, this means any price adjustments are likely to be modest rather than dramatic.
For buyers wondering should first home buyers wait for a property price drop, this episode highlights why waiting based on that assumption alone can be risky.
🏗️ New builds, incentives, and shifting competition
Government incentives and tax structures continue to favour new builds, which creates an interesting dynamic in the market. Both first home buyers and property investors are often directed toward the same segment—but for very different reasons.
Investors may be seeking tax efficiency through negative gearing changes, while first home buyers are often encouraged by grants or affordability messaging. This overlap increases competition, and in some cases, can push prices higher.
The episode explores how this demand shift works in practice, including the risk that developers respond to strong demand with pricing adjustments. For buyers, this means understanding not just where to buy, but who you're competing against—and why.
⚖️ Housing affordability: what actually drives it
Housing affordability is often discussed in relation to government policy, but the underlying drivers go much deeper. Interest rates, wage growth, construction levels, and infrastructure all influence how accessible the market really is.
While negative gearing changes and capital gains tax adjustments can shape investor behaviour, they don't directly solve the core issue of supply. Without meaningful increases in housing stock, affordability pressures can remain—even if the policy landscape shifts.
This episode reframes the conversation, helping buyers understand why focusing on long-term fundamentals is more important than reacting to short-term announcements.
💸 The rental market impact many buyers overlook
One of the most overlooked effects of these changes is the impact on the rental market Australia is currently experiencing. If investor activity declines in certain segments, rental supply may tighten—particularly in established housing.
This creates a flow-on effect. As supply decreases and demand remains strong, rents can rise. For first home buyers still renting, this matters more than it might seem. Higher rent means less capacity to save, which can delay your ability to enter the market.
This is where the broader picture becomes clear: changes designed to influence property investors can indirectly affect renters, making the path to ownership more challenging for some buyers.
🎯 By the end of this episode, you'll have a clearer understanding of negative gearing, property prices, and housing affordability—and how these factors interact in the current market. More importantly, you'll be better equipped to interpret policy changes with confidence, rather than relying on headlines or assumptions when making one of the biggest financial decisions of your life.
Episode Highlights:
01:28 – What's Actually in the 2026 Budget
05:48 – Will Property Prices Really Fall?
07:37 – Rents, Supply, and Why Location Matters
09:05 – Investor Demand vs Supply: What's Changing
11:46 – The New Build Trap First Buyers Should Know
15:23 – Why New Builds Could Become More Expensive
17:49 – The Risks of Buying Off-the-Plan
19:29 – Small Wins for Buyers, Bigger Pressure on Rent
25:33 – What First Home Buyers Should Do Next
29:05 – Key Takeaways from the Budget Changes
31:47 – Final Thoughts and What to Do From Here
05:48 – Will Property Prices Really Fall?
07:37 – Rents, Supply, and Why Location Matters
09:05 – Investor Demand vs Supply: What's Changing
11:46 – The New Build Trap First Buyers Should Know
15:23 – Why New Builds Could Become More Expensive
17:49 – The Risks of Buying Off-the-Plan
19:29 – Small Wins for Buyers, Bigger Pressure on Rent
25:33 – What First Home Buyers Should Do Next
29:05 – Key Takeaways from the Budget Changes
31:47 – Final Thoughts and What to Do From Here
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Co-Founders
Veronica Morgan & Meighan Wells
Veronica & Meighan are both licensed real estate agents who exclusively help buyers. Together they have nearly 40 years experience as property professionals.
Veronica is principal of Sydney based Good Deeds Property Buyers and is also co-host of The Elephant in the Room property podcast as well as Location Location Location Australia on Foxtel and author of Auction Ready: how to buy property at auction even though you're scared s#!tless!
Meighan is the multi award winning principal of Brisbane based Property Pursuit, chairperson of the REIQ Buyers Agent Chapter & a regular media commentator.
